Europe stands on the brink of a severe jet fuel crisis as conflict in Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, severing critical supplies just as the peak summer travel season approaches. International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol warned in mid-April 2026 that Europe has roughly six weeks of jet fuel reserves remaining, cautioning that without reopening the strait, flight cancellations from 'city A to city B' could soon become reality. Last year, the continent imported about one-third of its jet fuel, with 75% originating from the Middle East; nearly 40% of imports historically transited Hormuz. With the last pre-conflict tankers now delivered, substitution from the United States is insufficient amid surging Asian demand and export curbs elsewhere. This exposure stems from structural weaknesses: since 2009, over 25% of European refineries (28 facilities, representing 16% of capacity) have closed or converted to biofuels amid falling demand and aggressive decarbonization policies, per industry data. The IEA and analysts at Vortexa note Northwest Europe is particularly exposed, with April imports already down 15% and further declines expected as U.S. cargoes divert to Asia. Jet fuel prices have spiked above $200 per barrel, prompting airlines to cut capacity, impose surcharges, and warn of widespread disruptions. This marks the second major energy supply shock in four years following the 2022 Russian gas cutoff, underscoring how resource conflicts in the Middle East now deliver immediate economic pain to European consumers through grounded flights, inflated fares, and hits to tourism and aviation-dependent GDP. The EU is now scrambling to diversify via increased U.S. and Nigerian imports while addressing logistical challenges with fuel specifications. Legacy coverage has detailed the geopolitical conflict but often underplays these downstream connections between distant wars, long-term energy transition decisions, and everyday vulnerabilities in transport and leisure. Without swift resolution or alternatives, physical shortages at airports could emerge by June, forcing demand destruction through canceled routes and higher costs.