JWST/MIRI Data Show Type IIP Supernovae Produce 10^{-4} to 10^{-2} M_⊙ Dust by 1–7 Years, Insufficient for High-Redshift Galaxies Alone

The Subrayan et al. preprint presents MIRI photometry and SED fits for 11 Type IIP events. Early epochs show hot 1500 K continuum at 5–8 μm that transitions to 120–250 K silicate features at 10 and 18 μm by 600 days. Dust masses are derived from optically thin modified blackbody models assuming standard grain properties. Objects with early high-ionization lines, suggesting confined circumstellar material, tend toward higher dust yields. Sample size remains modest and selection favors events within 20 Mpc, limiting statistical power for rare subclasses.

Prior Spitzer studies of SN 2004et and SN 2017eaw reported comparable late-time dust masses, yet lacked the wavelength baseline to separate warm and cold components. The current work confirms that CCSNe supply seed grains rather than the dominant dust reservoir at z > 6, consistent with ALMA upper limits on dust in galaxies at 6 < z < 8 that require rapid ISM growth. No evidence emerges for a direct link between plateau duration and final dust mass, challenging simple mixing-length predictions from explosion models.

Future 3–5 year monitoring of the same sample with MIRI and NIRSpec will test whether dust continues to grow or is destroyed by the reverse shock. A statistically meaningful test requires expanding the sample to at least 30 events with uniform distance and metallicity coverage.