Macron's Record Low Approval Amid Fuel Crisis Signals Deeper Economic Strain and Political Realignment

French President Emmanuel Macron's approval rating has plummeted to a historic low of 18%, according to an Odoxa-Mascaret poll conducted for Public Sénat and regional media outlets, marking a seven-point drop since June 2026. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu fared similarly poorly, with approval falling eight points to 24%. The decline coincides with a worsening fuel crisis driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions, including disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz, leading to pump prices exceeding €2.40 per liter for diesel and localized shortages affecting up to 17% of stations.

The poll found 75% of respondents deeming the government's expanded aid for high-mileage drivers insufficient, with 62% calling for greater spending despite France's budget deficit. This reflects broader economic pressures on purchasing power, as Macron has sought EU-wide measures like relaxed fuel specifications and methane rules while extending targeted subsidies rather than broad tax cuts.

Separately, an RTL-commissioned Harris Interactive poll (September 22-24) projects Marine Le Pen leading first-round voting at 35-36% and dominating hypothetical runoffs, including 69% against Jean-Luc Mélenchon and 57% against Édouard Philippe. These trends underscore how energy shocks and fiscal constraints are accelerating a shift away from the center, amplifying opposition momentum ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

The crisis highlights vulnerabilities in France's energy import dependence and the limits of incremental policy responses in a high-deficit environment, potentially reshaping voter trust in governance.