Bernstein Raises Bitcoin Target to $300,000 by 2029 on Institutional ETF Flows
Bernstein's upward revision rests on post-ETF institutional custody data rather than macroeconomic narratives. Documented flows show custody migrating inside US-regulated channels, altering both volatility profile and sanctions reach. The price path hinges on whether Congress alters ETF collateral rules in 2025 appropriations.
Next inflection arrives with the 2025 debt-ceiling negotiations. Congressional records from prior cycles show Bitcoin language inserted into must-pass appropriations. Any clause expanding or contracting ETF eligible collateral directly alters Bernstein's inflow assumptions. Primary monitoring target remains monthly ETF holdings reported by the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation.
Bernstein: Bitcoin spot price exceeds $150,000 by 31 December 2025 if monthly ETF inflows remain above $4 billion.
Sources (3)
- [1]Bernstein Digital Assets Research Note(https://www.bernsteinresearch.com)
- [2]SEC Bitcoin ETF Holdings Filings(https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search)
- [3]DTCC Monthly ETF Position Reports(https://www.dtcc.com)