US-Israeli Campaign Closes Strait of Hormuz, Fuels Midterm Losses for GOP

The US-Israeli operation began in February with strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites. Tehran responded by mining and patrolling the Strait, halting 21 percent of global oil transit. Primary records from the Department of Energy show average national gasoline prices rising from $3.41 to $4.71 per gallon by October. Central bank data confirm energy costs transmitted into broader CPI readings, adding 1.8 points to headline inflation. Voter surveys conducted by the Associated Press on election day recorded 60 percent of respondents calling the Iran operation a mistake. The same polls showed 87 percent citing fuel prices as a top concern. Exit data indicate the cost-of-living issue outranked all other factors by a two-to-one margin in the three states that flipped. The move aligned with stated Israeli security objectives to degrade Iranian capabilities but imposed immediate costs on US energy balances and alliance cohesion. European and Asian trading partners recorded no parallel military commitments, limiting the operation's diplomatic cover. Treasury sanctions enforcement logs show continued Iranian oil exports via alternative routes to China, blunting the intended economic pressure. Administration officials have signaled plans to rotate additional naval assets into the Gulf while exploring limited exemptions for select importers. Central bank projections indicate further price volatility through the first quarter unless transit volumes recover above 60 percent of pre-conflict levels.