US Copper Imports Hit 200,000 Tons in July as Tariff Uncertainty and Chilean Output Cuts Tighten Global Market

US buyers have accelerated purchases of refined copper from the seaborne market, building inventories that reached 200,000 tons in July. This front-running occurs amid uncertainty over phased US import tariffs. Bradesco BBI analyst Rafael Barcellos noted that both tariff implementation and non-implementation scenarios ultimately pressure prices, yet the uncertainty itself sustains upward momentum by keeping buyers active longer than a binary outcome would allow.

Global mine supply data confirms the physical tightness. The International Copper Study Group reported a 1.1 percent decline in global mine production for the first half of 2026, with Codelco and Freeport-McMoRan posting double-digit drops. Antofagasta and Lundin Mining lowered 2026 guidance for Los Pelambres and Caserones after severe weather in Chile, while producers representing two-thirds of global supply recorded a 3.5 percent output fall. Morgan Stanley revised its earlier supply-growth forecast to flat or slightly negative annual production.

China has responded by increasing scrap imports 15 percent year-over-year in July to offset concentrate shortages at smelters. This substitution masks but does not resolve underlying mine constraints. Demand drivers from electric vehicles, grid expansion, and data centers remain structurally intact, yet the current price rally rests primarily on inventory positioning rather than sustained consumption growth.

A phased tariff remains the most probable path, extending US buying into 2027 and limiting near-term downside. However, once inventories are absorbed or redirected, any demand pullback would expose the market to rapid price correction if Chilean disruptions ease.