Lede: Neha Narula's post states Bitcoin signatures would be broken by a cryptographically-relevant quantum computer appearing tomorrow, requiring both protocol changes and wallet migrations.

Narula cites a Google Quantum coauthor's 10% probability estimate for CRQC by 2030 and notes Taproot soft fork activation required 3 years and 10 months, yielding a sample 5% combined risk Bitcoin fails to upgrade in time (https://nehanarula.org/2026/04/03/bitcoin-and-quantum-computing.html). NIST announced first PQC standards in 2022 with ML-KEM and ML-DSA selected for standardization in 2024 (https://csrc.nist.gov/projects/post-quantum-cryptography).

IBM reported utility-scale quantum progress with 127-qubit Eagle processor in 2023 and Condor at 1121 qubits in 2023, citing error-correction milestones that compress projected CRQC timelines (https://www.ibm.com/quantum/blog/ibm-quantum-roadmap). Coverage in MIT Technology Review 2024 articles frames quantum blockchain threats as 15-30 years distant, omitting Narula's probability-product framing and NIST primitives already available for integration.

Primary sources show Bitcoin upgrade path involves soft fork plus mass address migration; NIST FIPS 203-205 provide building blocks yet require years of consensus, testing, and wallet adoption not addressed in original source.