US Ground Beef Prices Fall 1.3 Percent in September as Imports Rise

Retail ground beef prices stalled in the second half of 2025 after sustained increases driven by the tightest US cattle inventory in a generation. The September reading of $7.062 per pound marked a 1.3 percent decline from August's $7.16 record. Steak prices also eased for the second straight month. The movement coincided with expanded tariff-rate quotas allowing up to 300,000 tons of ground beef imports and the reopening of Arizona and New Mexico land ports to Mexican cattle. Through August, cumulative beef shipments rose 15 percent year-over-year, led by Australia and Mexico.

The price relief reflects a deliberate policy shift to supplement domestic supply rather than wait for herd rebuilding. New World screwworm restrictions had kept Mexican imports depressed; recent port reopenings and higher USDA forecasts for 2026-2027 indicate authorities expect sustained foreign inflows. Demand destruction toward chicken and pork has already appeared in restaurant and retail data, shortening the adjustment period for protein markets.

US trade actions prioritize immediate consumer price stability over longer-term domestic production incentives. Allowing larger low-tariff volumes from Mexico and Australia reduces pressure on feedlot margins while exposing US producers to greater import competition once screwworm protocols normalize. The cattle cycle itself remains multi-year; herd liquidation has not reversed, so any sustained price floor depends on continued import access rather than domestic supply growth.

Next data points to watch are October BLS CPI figures and the next USDA Cattle on Feed report. If monthly import volumes through Arizona and New Mexico exceed 30,000 head by year-end, ground beef prices are likely to remain below the August peak through the first quarter of 2026.