Brent Crude Tops $100 After US Destroys Five Iranian Tankers on September 8

US forces responded to two IRGC missile launches by striking five Iranian oil carriers near the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian attacks simultaneously hit a US base in Jordan and Saudi energy sites. CENTCOM confirmed the carrier strikes and stated further Iranian actions would trigger additional tanker losses. Brent reached $100.83 in early European trading before extending gains. Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 Brent forecast by $5 to $85 on the assumption of sustained Hormuz shipping constraints. The bank modeled a $120 upside case if 2027 Gulf output falls 4 million barrels per day below pre-conflict levels. Base case assumes only 0.5 million barrels per day reduction. UBS noted Iranian rejection of the latest US talks proposal. The pattern shows both sides prioritizing demonstrated resolve over immediate de-escalation. The United States secures tanker interdiction leverage and alliance reassurance. Iran maintains pressure on US forward positions and Saudi infrastructure to raise costs of sustained operations. Shipping risk premia now embed into 2027 contracts rather than short-term spikes. Absent verified diplomatic channels or output data showing Gulf volumes above pre-war averages, Goldman’s deferred diesel timespread hedge remains the clearest instrument for locking in the current dislocation through March 2027.