AI Stocks Account for 62% of S&P 500 Returns Since June 2024 While Energy Contributes 8%

Third-quarter earnings releases show capital expenditure commitments by hyperscalers reached $220 billion annualized, with 70% allocated to AI infrastructure. This compares to upstream oil and gas capex that remains flat at 2023 levels despite Brent prices above $75. Primary records from company 10-Q filings confirm the divergence in forward guidance rather than any shift in commodity fundamentals.

The structural change appears in sector weightings inside the S&P 500: technology now comprises 32% versus energy at 3.8%. Historical parallels from 1998-2000 show similar concentration around a single technology wave, yet current multiples embed higher sustained earnings growth assumptions tied to data-center utilization rates rather than cyclical demand recovery.

Oil producers face documented margin pressure from OPEC+ quota compliance and rising non-OPEC supply, documented in the September OPEC monthly report. In contrast, AI-related free cash flow conversion remains above 35% for leading semiconductor firms per their latest earnings transcripts.

Next earnings cycle will test whether AI capex guidance is revised upward or held steady; any sequential decline below $55 billion quarterly would signal the first measurable slowdown in the driver now responsible for the majority of index beta.