China's Nuclear Surge: Analyst Forecasts Dominance Through 2035 as Capacity Overtakes France and Advanced Tech Lead Widens

Multiple independent analyses confirm China's rapid nuclear expansion, with Gavekal Technologies analyst Damien Ma stating that 'by a wide margin, China will have the world’s most dynamic and significant nuclear industry through 2035.' South China Morning Post reporting on the Gavekal analysis notes China accounts for nearly half of global reactors under construction and is projected to match U.S. capacity within five years, driven by AI power demand and streamlined six-year build times versus over a decade for U.S. projects like Vogtle.

U.S. Energy Information Administration data shows China's nuclear capacity nearly doubled since 2016, reaching 58.7 GW by mid-2026 with 36 reactors under construction—over 49% of the global total. BloombergNEF projects China reaching 102 GW by decade's end, positioning it to surpass the U.S. BloombergNEF and World Nuclear Association figures confirm China recently overtook France for second place globally in operating capacity (around 64 GW vs. France's 63 GW).

China's 15th Five-Year Plan prioritizes nuclear for energy security and innovation, targeting 110 GW by 2030, per CSIS analysis. This includes leadership in fourth-generation technologies: the CNNC-IAEA agreement signed in September 2026 facilitates international sharing of high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) expertise for power, industrial heat, and hydrogen production, as reported by Global Times and Interesting Engineering. Parallel advances include the world's first thorium-uranium fuel conversion in an operating molten-salt reactor (TMSR-LF1), confirmed by World Nuclear News and Chinese Academy of Sciences sources, supporting fuel independence.

Geopolitically, this positions China to export reactors via Belt and Road while the U.S. pursues domestic uranium enrichment and next-gen designs under different regulatory constraints. AI-driven electricity demand amplifies stakes, with Wood Mackenzie forecasting quadrupling Chinese data center consumption by 2030. The IAEA deal signals a shift from secrecy toward technology diplomacy, potentially reshaping global nuclear supply chains and standards.