1960 Science paper by von Foerster predicted hyperbolic population growth to infinity by November 2026, yet global fertility has since halved

The authors rejected standard Malthusian limits and instead modeled accelerating growth driven by human coalition-forming and problem-solving capacity. Their equation fit historical data more closely than exponential models and was defended vigorously against mathematical critiques through the 1980s, appearing in textbooks and even cited in 1971 Supreme Court arguments preceding Roe v. Wade. Current UN and national statistics show the global total fertility rate fell from roughly 5 births per woman in 1960 to 2.3 today, placing actual population well below the 2026 trajectory after the mid-1990s inflection. This reversal tracks expanded education, contraception access, and urban lifestyles rather than resource collapse. The episode illustrates how well-fitted curves from limited historical data can project dramatic futures while missing behavioral feedbacks; modern demographic models now incorporate fertility transitions explicitly, showing stabilization below 10 billion rather than singularity.