UK Multicenter Study Ties Emergency Department Occupancy Above 100% to 1% Mortality Rise per 10% Increase
Observational data from 134 UK emergency departments link rising occupancy to higher 28-day mortality, projecting hundreds of weekly excess deaths at current crowding levels. The association holds after basic case-mix adjustment but remains vulnerable to unmeasured confounding. Targeted occupancy interventions require prospective evaluation with clinical endpoints.
Next steps include linkage to national death registries for longer follow-up and cluster-randomized trials of real-time occupancy alerts. Such trials must report absolute risk reductions alongside relative measures to guide staffing and bed-management policies.
McHenry et al.: National occupancy capping below 120% will reduce observed 28-day mortality by at least 3 percentage points in participating trusts within 18 months of implementation.
Sources (3)
- [1]Primary Source(https://eusem.org/congress-2025)
- [2]Supporting Source(https://www.bmj.com/content/379/bmj-2022-070704)
- [3]Supporting Source(https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02373-0/fulltext)