Iran Reports 14-15 Million Liter Daily Gasoline Deficit After Strikes and US Import Restrictions

State media and officials recorded long queues at Tehran stations as drivers preempted potential price increases. Esmaeil Saqab Esfahani stated the market deficit stems from war damage, budget shifts, and consumption exceeding domestic output. The government tested methanol blending at the Persian Gulf Star Refinery and promoted compressed natural gas conversion for 4.5 million dual-fuel vehicles while maintaining a fixed 121 million liter daily distribution cap.

Gasoline subsidies have long anchored regime stability. Price adjustments in 2019 produced lethal unrest that killed hundreds. Current inflation and currency pressure compound the risk that any rationing or hike could repeat that pattern. US sanctions on port access limit the import buffer Iran previously used to close gaps, while Israeli strikes removed storage capacity.

The US gains incremental leverage on Iranian revenue and logistics without new kinetic commitments. Iran gains a domestic narrative blaming external actors but absorbs higher internal security costs and reduced export flexibility. Primary records from ISNA and Hamshahri show officials framing shortages as temporary while avoiding formal price announcements.

Next steps hinge on whether distribution caps hold or whether parliament authorizes visible rationing before summer demand peaks.