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financeFriday, July 3, 2026 at 12:01 PM
Michael Burry files bearish options position against Micron Technology amid AI memory demand surge

Michael Burry files bearish options position against Micron Technology amid AI memory demand surge

Burry's options bet against Micron highlights valuation pressure in AI memory supply chains despite reported demand growth. Primary filings and industry capacity data reveal divergence between current multiples and prior cycle outcomes. US policy constraints and subsidy conditions add further variables to the 2025 earnings trajectory.

Burry's move follows Micron's fiscal third-quarter results showing 80 percent year-over-year revenue growth to $6.8 billion, driven by high-bandwidth memory sales for AI training clusters. The filing reveals options expiring in 2025 with strike prices below current levels, increasing from prior quarter holdings. This occurs as Samsung and SK Hynix report parallel capacity expansions in HBM3E, with industry data indicating planned wafer starts rising 25 percent in 2025.

Micron's valuation multiples now exceed historical peaks reached in the 2017-2018 cycle, when oversupply erased prior gains within eighteen months. Burry's prior public short of Nvidia in 2023 preceded a temporary 20 percent correction before resumption of the broader rally. Primary exchange data shows options volume on Micron increasing 40 percent in the week after the filing disclosure.

Competing interests include US export controls on advanced memory to China, which Micron has cited as limiting addressable market by an estimated $2-3 billion annually, versus domestic CHIPS Act subsidies supporting new Idaho and New York fabrication facilities. The Department of Commerce records confirm these grants total $6.1 billion conditional on production milestones through 2028.

Forward indicators include the upcoming December quarter earnings and January FOMC minutes, which will clarify whether sustained high interest rates constrain data center capital expenditure growth below the 30 percent annual rate recorded in 2024.

⚡ Prediction

Micron: Reported HBM revenue share falls below 25 percent of total revenue in fiscal Q2 2025 earnings

Sources (3)

  • [1]
    SEC 13F Filing(https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1649339/000164933924000012/0001649339-24-000012-index.htm)
  • [2]
    Micron Q3 2024 Earnings Release(https://investors.micron.com/news-releases/news-release-details/micron-technology-inc-reports-results-third-quarter-fiscal-2024)
  • [3]
    US Department of Commerce CHIPS Act Award Announcement(https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2024/04/biden-harris-administration-awards-615-billion-micron-support)