El Niño Drought Compounds Sudan Conflict to Drive Child Malnutrition Deaths
El Niño-amplified drought in Sudan has accelerated child deaths from malnutrition and disease, but the dominant driver remains the active civil war that blocks aid and farming. Evidence from sentinel surveillance shows hundreds of deaths already; conflict resolution is the binding constraint on resilience. Without immediate access improvements, mortality thresholds will be crossed again in the next dry season.
Future El Niño episodes are projected to increase in frequency and intensity under current emissions trajectories, yet Sudan’s adaptive capacity hinges more on conflict resolution than on incremental climate finance. Without secure access corridors and cessation of hostilities, additional rainfall variability will translate directly into excess child mortality rather than recoverable harvest shortfalls.
UNICEF Sudan: Acute malnutrition caseload in eastern states will exceed 650,000 children by December 2024 unless cross-line access increases by 50 percent before October.
Sources (3)
- [1]Primary Source(https://www.unicef.org/sudan/reports/sudan-humanitarian-situation-report-march-june-2024)
- [2]Supporting Source(https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240098763)
- [3]Supporting Source(https://www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/cc9023en)