Current El Niño Projected to Produce Record Amazon Drought and Elevated Wildfire Risk

The New Scientist report draws on statements from Brazilian and European climate scientists who combined sea-surface temperature anomalies with historical rainfall deficits. The current El Niño has already produced +2 °C anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region, exceeding the 2015-2016 peak in several months. When superimposed on long-term warming and ongoing deforestation, the combination is expected to reduce dry-season rainfall by 30-40 % in central and eastern Amazonia.

Past strong El Niño events (1997-98, 2015-16) produced measurable declines in Amazon evapotranspiration and live biomass, documented by MODIS and GRACE satellite data. Deforestation since 2016 has removed an additional 45 000 km² of forest, reducing the region’s capacity to recycle moisture and thereby amplifying the meteorological drought. The resulting fuel dryness is projected to push fire danger indices above the 95th percentile for 4-6 months.

What comes next depends on whether the event transitions to La Niña by mid-2024. If sea-surface temperatures fall rapidly, some relief could occur; if the warm phase lingers, cumulative tree mortality and carbon release could exceed 2015-16 levels. Ground-based eddy-covariance towers and the new AmazonFACE experiment will provide the first real-time physiological measurements during such an event.