Generational Income Gains Slow but Persist: Fed Study Confirms Declining but Positive Progress Across U.S. Cohorts

A 2024 Federal Reserve discussion paper by Kevin Corinth and Jeff Larrimore documents a measurable slowdown in intergenerational income progress while confirming each recent generation remains better off than the last. Using post-tax, post-transfer income from CPS data (1963–2022), the study finds Millennials (born 1981–1996) at ages 36–40 had median household income 18% higher than Generation X at the same age. Gen X saw a 16% gain over Baby Boomers, who in turn earned 27% more than the Silent Generation; the Silent Generation held a 34% advantage over the Greatest Generation. Cumulative gains from the Greatest Generation baseline reach 133% for Millennials. Hours worked rose sharply for earlier cohorts but stabilized, contributing to slower gains for X and Millennials. These findings align with Raj Chetty et al.'s 2017 Science paper showing absolute mobility—the share of children out-earning parents at age 30—fell from ~90% for the 1940 birth cohort to 50% for those born in the 1980s. Related analyses highlight compounding pressures from housing costs and wealth concentration that the income metrics alone understate, though the Fed paper focuses on measured income including transfers.