NRDC Models 390-540 GW Renewable Capacity Reduction Under Trump IRA Rollbacks and Tariffs

NRDC modeling shows that removal of IRA incentives and new trade barriers reduce expected renewable buildout by more than half relative to its January 2025 baseline. The report documents that legacy fossil assets will cover the shortfall, increasing annual fossil fuel expenditures by $5-15 billion and raising average household electricity rates 4.2-5.5 percent by 2035. Supply-chain data from Global Energy Monitor indicate that 189 GW of announced gas projects face turbine shortages and financing gaps that limit actual completions.

US policy reversal prioritizes immediate deregulation and domestic fossil output over long-term cost declines from renewables. Developers shift toward less efficient simple-cycle gas units due to combined-cycle turbine backlogs, raising emissions intensity per megawatt-hour. States and utilities lose access to the largest federal incentive stream since the 2009 stimulus, altering the relative economics of new generation regardless of state-level renewable standards.

Global Energy Monitor and NRDC both record that gas project pipelines have nearly doubled in 2025 yet lack firm turbine contracts or start dates for over half the capacity tied to data centers. This constraint caps the substitution effect the administration anticipates. Power-sector investment therefore tilts toward existing coal and gas fleets rather than new-build alternatives.

Over the next 24 months, the decisive variable is whether Congress enacts any replacement tax treatment for renewables or whether states accelerate bilateral procurement to offset federal withdrawal. Absent either offset, the NRDC trajectory holds.