US Deficits Soar Past $1.8 Trillion Despite Growth: Borrowing Signals Amid No Recession

Official data confirms the US federal budget deficit hit $1.8 trillion for fiscal year 2025, with partial FY2026 figures reaching $1.97 trillion through 11 months, on track to exceed $2 trillion for the year. This occurs even as the economy expands and unemployment stays low, echoing concerns raised in analyses from The Epoch Times and ZeroHedge about fiscal behavior resembling recessionary borrowing without an official downturn.

CBO reports show revenues rose about 6% year-over-year while outlays increased 4%, driven by mandatory spending on entitlements and net interest costs surpassing $1 trillion annually. Treasury yields have climbed to multi-year highs, with the 20-year note near 5.34% and 10-year around 5%, pushing interest payments to record shares of the budget.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), enacted in 2025, is projected by CBO to add $3-4.5 trillion to the debt over a decade including interest, aligning with critiques of tax cuts without sufficient spending offsets. CRFB analyses highlight how such legislation exacerbates long-term debt-to-GDP ratios, projected to climb unsustainably.

Bloomberg reporting notes higher borrowing costs and spending pressures persist into 2026, with partial-year deficits underscoring the gap between revenue and outlays. While tariffs boosted customs duties, they have not closed the structural shortfall. Polling data and expert commentary from groups like CRFB indicate broad public concern over debt levels.

These patterns represent documented fiscal trends rather than unverified speculation, with official sources showing deficits remaining elevated outside pandemic periods.