ASEAN Grid Shortfalls Stall 50-60 Percent of Renewable Projects in Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia
Hormuz disruption exposed Southeast Asia's import dependence and weak grids, stalling renewables at scale. IEA and commercial reports quantify both the demand surge and the infrastructure shortfall. Divergent national incentives continue to block coordinated transmission investment required to convert stated policy into delivered capacity.
Without accelerated cross-border grid codes and tariff reforms that align investor returns with actual delivery capacity, import dependence will remain elevated through 2030. The next measurable test is whether 2025-2027 national plans allocate concrete transmission budgets that match the documented demand increment rather than restating generation targets alone.
IEA: ASEAN-wide grid investment announcements fall short of 30 percent of required transmission spend by end-2027, leaving at least 40 TWh of new demand unmet by domestic renewables.
Sources (2)
- [1]IEA Southeast Asia Energy Outlook(https://www.iea.org/reports/southeast-asia-energy-outlook-2024)
- [2]Bain & Company and Standard Chartered Renewable Project Review(https://www.bain.com/insights/renewable-energy-project-pipeline-southeast-asia-2025/)