Minimal agent-based model identifies sharp density threshold where proximity yields globally integrated networks, accelerating simple but stabilizing complex contagions
Tokita demonstrates via controlled agent-based modeling that density alone reorganizes social networks at a critical threshold, differentially affecting simple versus complex contagion dynamics. The work isolates a structural mechanism with direct implications for city design and epidemic forecasting beyond conventional behavioral explanations.
Mainstream urban scaling literature emphasizes productivity and innovation but rarely quantifies network topology shifts. Tokita's isolation of density supplies a mechanistic link to contagion outcomes relevant for pandemic planning, showing that modest density increases near the transition can produce disproportionate changes in both transmission speed and behavioral norm stability.
Tokita: Replication with geolocated mobile-phone networks from three mid-sized cities will detect the same core-periphery transition between 1200-1800 persons per km2 within 18 months.
Sources (2)
- [1]Primary Source(https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.19488)
- [2]Supporting Source(https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2009641118)