Iran Deal Reopens Hormuz, Lifting Exports to 2.8 Million Barrels Daily

Primary records show the deal suspended secondary sanctions on Iranian energy and shipping in exchange for IAEA-monitored enrichment caps at 3.67 percent. Shipping data from Clarksons and Vortexa confirm 14 VLCCs cleared the strait between June 13 and 18, adding 9.8 million barrels to visible supply. Brent futures fell 7 percent while the 12-month contango narrowed 2.4 dollars, indicating immediate physical relief rather than speculative repricing.

The ledger for Tehran shows restored access to 40 billion dollars in frozen assets and Asian buyer contracts, offset by permanent IAEA video surveillance at Natanz and Fordow. For importers, lower risk premia reduced the geopolitical adder on Asian LNG and Middle East crude by 3 to 5 dollars per barrel. Central banks have not yet adjusted rate paths, consistent with the Bloomberg note that energy pass-through remains below the 2022 threshold.

Next-quarter risk centers on verification disputes. If enrichment readings exceed the cap by October, snap-back clauses activate within 30 days under the new text. Markets price a 35 percent probability of renewed Hormuz restrictions by year-end, per options skew data.

The pattern aligns with prior supply shocks: 2019 attacks and 2022 Ukraine invasion both produced short-term volume surges followed by rapid risk compression once physical flows resumed.