Quasar Dipole Reveals Sun's True Acceleration, Exposing Overconfident Gaia Claims
Preprint analysis widens uncertainty on Solar System acceleration measured via quasar proper motions, confirming kinematic origin while exposing optimistic prior errors.
Astronomers have long inferred the Solar System's acceleration from stellar proper motions, yet a new Gaia-based analysis of quasars shows prior error bars were too narrow. The preprint (arXiv:2605.30367) applies the pseudo-C_ℓ formalism to both the Gaia EDR3 quasar catalogue and the Quaia sample, then uses simulation-based inference to jointly fit the dipole while marginalising over higher multipoles. This yields a best-fit acceleration amplitude of 5.72^{+0.53}{-0.52} μas yr^{-1} from Quaia, with components (g_x, g_y, g_z) = (0.40^{+0.70}{-0.70}, -5.09^{+0.54}{-0.54}, -2.40^{+0.55}{-0.58}) μas yr^{-1}; the credible intervals widen by factors of 1.5-2.5 once degeneracies are accounted for. No redshift dependence appears, supporting a purely kinematic origin tied to the Sun's orbit around the Galactic centre rather than any cosmological dipole. Earlier Gaia Collaboration results (2021) and the 2018 VLBI-based determination both reported tighter uncertainties without fully modelling scanning-law systematics or stellar-density correlations now diagnosed here. The study remains a preprint and relies on two catalogues whose selection functions differ, leaving residual cross-correlation power that future DR4 data may resolve.
HELIX: Precise quasar dipole mapping shows the Sun's acceleration is real but its error budget was underestimated; future Gaia releases will test whether any residual signal hints at larger-scale flows.
Sources (3)
- [1]Primary Source(https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.30367)
- [2]Related Source(https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.02019)
- [3]Related Source(https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ApJ...859...12T)